Election Night Scores: Reform - 5 Status Quo - 0

Of the five “reform” minded propositions on the ballot (20, 22, 25, 26 and 27), the “reform” team posted a W in all five races. Now that a few days have passed and the exhilaration (or exasperation) of Tuesday night is behind us, it’s time for a little retrospective of what happened and some conjecture about why.

Proposition 20 (expand the redistricting commission to Congressional districts) passed with an overwhelming 61.2% of the state voting “Yes”, conversely Prop 27 (eliminate the redistricting commission) failed miserably at the polls with 59.5% of California voting “No”. After a close win in 2008 (Prop 11), the redistricting commission has answered many of its critics (sans Vlad Kogan) with their diverse and meritorious process for appointment to the commission.

Proposition 22 took aim at the state government “raiding” local governments’ coffers. The voters like their local governments much more than the state, and 61% of the voters sided with city governments up and down the Golden State. Whether or not this is another roadblock toward responsible government or a stand for local control over government policies is yet to be determined.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Props 25 (majority to pass budget) and 26 (supermajority to pass fees and charges) both passed with 54.8% and 52.8% of the vote, respectively. At first blush this may seem like a contradictory result passed by wishy wash middle of the road moderates who have don’t have a clue what they’re doing at the ballot box. These two races were determined by the moderates in both parties and the independents—but not because they don’t pay attention to politics and make contradictory irrational votes. I contend it’s quite the opposite. And that the taxpayer activists, while successful at passing Prop 26, are responsible for the passage of Prop 25.

As the majority party, Democrats benefit from a simple majority requirement for the budget passage. They don’t need Able Maldonado anymore, heck they don’t even need moderate Democrats to pass a budget through the state legislature. Even if every single Democrat voted “Yes” on 25 on Tuesday, that still would not have been enough votes to pass the ballot measure. The Field Poll estimated that only 44% of the electorate were registered Democrats. Prop 25 needed, and received, some votes from either the Decline to State folks, Republicans or both.

Why would a moderate, Independent or Republican vote for Prop 25? Maybe it was the disastrous state of our annual budget or maybe the record breaking 4 month delay in passing this year’s budget. Maybe they just believe in majoritarian rule? What about Democrats and Republicans alike, who are wary about tax (or to be more precise “fee” and “charge”) increases during the worst economic downturn since Adolph Hitler was penning his manuscript in a German jail cell? One thing we know from political science is that sociotropic views of good governance are not enough to overcome personal economic votes. So why would these moderate Democrats, Independents and Republicans make it easier to pass a budget, when the core of budget politics is taxing and spending policies? See Prop 26.

Prop 26, an anti-tax measure, was put on the ballot by taxpayer activists hedging their bets and looking to close a loophole that the legislature has used to raise fees and institute charges on various state services. Like Prop 25, there are not enough voters from the right side of the aisle to pass 26. Field estimated only 39% of the voters last Tuesday were Republican, Prop 26 needed votes from the middle and/or the left. Finding Independents and Democrats who are opposed to tax (or “fee” and “charge”) increases is not hard to do. Anti-tax measures are pretty successful in general and the most famous proposition of all time (Prop 13 - the granddaddy of the anti-tax propositions) had widespread support. I suggest that the presence of Prop 26 made it okay for moderates to vote in favor of Prop 25. A simple majority budget is a much more palatable concept if the fee and charge loophole that has been used recently gets closed. The ‘piece of mind’ that voters had that the state’s hand wouldn’t reach deeper into our already empty pockets allowed for a sociotropic vote on Prop 25.