By LA Times De Los · October 23, 2026
In just 11 days, millions of Americans will head to the polls to vote on key local races and decide the fate of Congress.
Perhaps no voting bloc will be more crucial in swinging the balance of power than Latinos.
In 2024, after decades of reliably supporting Democrats, the electorate of roughly 36.2 million people (about 15% of all total voters) shifted massively to the right and supported Donald Trump at previously never-before-seen rates. After the election, armchair pundits and paid professionals proclaimed that Ronald Reagan had been right all along. Latinos were Republican. They just needed to realize it.
It didn’t take long for that narrative to start crumbling. A year after Trump’s reelection, Latinos in California helped pass Proposition 50, which allowed Democrats to redraw the state’s congressional map in their favor to counter a successful effort by Texas Republicans to do the same — coincidentally, the Texas gerrymander was at least partially motivated by said gains with Latino voters.
Latinos also helped Democrats pick up governorships in Virginia and New Jersey in 2025 — with two-thirds of their votes going for Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill, respectively.
Whatever gains Republicans made with Latino voters appear to have vanished. Recent polls show the demographic to be experiencing buyers’ remorse, citing the increased cost of living, the Trump administration’s heavy-handed immigration enforcement tactics, involvement in wars abroad and a stagnating economy as reasons for the disillusionment.
President Trump’s approval rating among Latinos dipped to 27% in an early October NBC News survey. That same poll found that Democrats have a 24-point lead on whom Latino voters want to see in control of Congress.
But don’t expect this whiplash back to the left to be permanent.
“It’s not a realignment, it’s a de-alignment,” said Mike Madrid, a former Republican political consultant and author of “The Latino Century: How America’s Largest Minority Is Transforming Democracy.”
“Latinos are completely moving away from both parties and that’s what’s created this dramatic swing of 25 points towards Trump in four years and then massive swings back.”
So how will the Latino vote shake out in two weeks? Below are five races we are keeping tabs on.
L.A. mayoral race
You don’t need to go outside the city limits to find proof that Latino voters aren’t political ideologues.
During the 2022 mayoral primary, billionaire Rick Caruso won the largest share of the Latino vote (34%). A few months later, Karen Bass became mayor, winning 51% of the Latino vote.
Bass once again won the Latino vote during the 2026 primaries, carrying 35 Latino-majority neighborhoods in the June 2 election — compared with seven for her current challenger, Councilmember Nithya Raman.
Four months, much campaigning and the botched response to a massive warehouse fire in heavily Latino Boyle Heights later, Raman — a democratic socialist — now has a 24-point lead among Latino voters, according to an October Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times poll.
Notably, 34% of Latinos remain undecided heading into the Nov. 3 election.
“Latinos are about a third of the voters in L.A.,” Fernando Guerra, a professor of political science and Chicana/o studies at Loyola Marymount University, told The Times this month. “While they show preferences, they are not deeply committed to either candidate, so they are the quintessential swing voters who decide late.”
Will the embattled incumbent keep her job, or will Los Angeles become the next big city to elect a mayor backed by the Democratic Socialists of America? Latino Angelenos will decide.
California 22nd district
Will Democrats’ Proposition 50 redistricting gambit pay off? Voters of this newly reconfigured Central Valley district populated by blue-collar and agrarian Latinos will decide.
Republican David Valadao is the incumbent and is being challenged by activist and educator Randy Villegas. In 2024, voters in the district backed failed Republican Senate candidate Steve Garvey.
Political forecasts have Villegas — a progressive populist — with a narrow lead over the incumbent.
Part of his appeal, Madrid said, was his messaging.
“[His message is] the establishment’s not working and that institutions aren’t working,” Madrid said. “It’s a much more populist message. I don’t believe this is ideological one bit.”