A November ballot measure that could complicate a Central Valley casino project won't halt Indian gaming proposals in Vallejo, city officials say.
However, the outcome of Proposition 48 could send a political message to Sacramento that could erode support for expanding tribal territory for the purpose of building casinos, according to the No on 48 campaign.
"A 'no' vote sends a very strong message to the state Legislature and the governor that the public is not in support of off-reservation gaming," said Cheryl Schmit, who has led the No on 48 campaign. "A 'yes' vote would open the floodgates to more proposals. This is about Las Vegas moving to California."
The measure involves the North Fork Rancheria of Mono Indians' proposal for a casino in Madera County, about 27 miles northwest of Fresno. If passed, the measure would uphold gaming compacts between the state and two tribes to allow the project to proceed.
A "no" vote, however, would overturn the compacts, complicating the project.
Supporters of the measure say it will have no bearing on other casino projects around the state.
"Voting yes or no on Prop. 48 won't change a single local or federal law," said Charlie Altekruse, spokesman for the North Fork Rancheria. "The important thing to remember, and especially in Vallejo, is that each tribal project is scrutinized in detail on its own merits. It depends on the tribe and what process they engage to acquire the land."
Vallejo is considering four development proposals for an Indian casino on Mare Island. The project would require transferring land to a tribe — a process requiring federal approval that could take years.
City Manager Dan Keen said it's unclear if and how Prop. 48 may impact Vallejo's prospects for a casino. Keen said the issue has not come up in early talks with developers.
City Attorney Claudia Quintana said "it's hard to tell" how the proposition might affect any possible casino project on Mare Island.
"However, that referendum is project specific," Quintana said. "A yes vote allows two specific compacts to be approved and go forward. A no vote will prevent the two compacts from moving forward."
Of the state's 109 federally recognized tribes, 72 have gaming compacts. Currently, 58 tribes operate 59 casinos, according to the Legislative Analyst's Office.
The North Fork project followed the U.S. Department of the Interior allowing 305 acres to be placed in trust for the tribe, which had no reservation.
In 2012, Gov. Jerry Brown agreed with the decision, citing the projected economic benefit to the tribes and an agreement with the Wiyot tribe to forgo gaming on its own lands.
Brown also cited Madera County's support of the project, adding he expects there "will be few requests from other tribes that will present the same kind of exceptional circumstances to support similar expansion of tribal gaming land."
But others, including Prop. 48 opponent Sen. Dianne Feinstein, fear the project will lead to more tribes engaging in "reservation shopping" for casinos in urban areas to make higher profits.
"Proposition 48 will open the floodgates to countless more mega casinos in local communities across the state," Feinstein said in a statement. "Enough is enough."
Others say the ballot measure is about preventing competition with existing casino tribes, as evidenced by its funding. Table Mountain Rancheria, 25 miles east of Madera, has pumped more than $10 million into the No on 48 campaign. Brigade Capital Management, an investment firm with ties to the Chukchansi tribe, has contributed $3.6 million to the cause.
"The No on 48 campaign is nothing more than an attempt to prevent tribes from competing with existing casinos," said Anthony Cohen, general counsel to Elem Indian Colony, one of the entities competing for development rights on North Mare Island.
Cohen added the fight has nothing to do with legal principles because "there is no such thing as an off-reservation casino."
"As a matter of federal law, no Indian casino can be built anywhere except on land that ... is the tribe's sovereign territory ... pursuant to federal law ... and is recognized by the federal government as eligible for Indian gaming under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act," Cohen said. "Any Indian casino in Vallejo would have to meet both of those requirements."
Contact Tony Burchyns at 707-553-6831.